Australia is going to be destroyed economically
“I believe the impact of AI on the global economy will be so enormous, it is irresponsible for any company to be running a profit”
Australia’s current government has a protectionist policy on fossil fuels that caused Australia to miss a big opportunity in renewables, but fossil fuels only contribute about 3% of GDP. Action on climate change is important but the impact of AI could be comparable in scale and impact.
Most of the population is not yet awake to the coming AI revolution. It is going to turn the global economy upside down. Yet the Australian Government’s announced just $29m over 4 yrs in The Budget. “Paltry” is the only word I can use to adequately describe that.
To be fair, it is not only government that hasn’t realised the impact AI is already having and will continue to have. Corporate Australia hasn’t awoken yet either.
I have an extreme view on this. I acknowledge that, but I also stand by it. I believe the impact of AI will be so enormous, it is irresponsible for any company to be running a profit. You should be re-investing all of it to manage AI-driven risk.
Think about that for a second. It is the responsibility of every Board and C-suite to manage risk. So in this article I want to share some insight about the risk created by AI technology and it’s likely impact. Once you understand this risk, you will understand my bold statement about company profits, you will understand the need for government to do more and you will appreciate why you need more, young, tech-savvy people on corporate boards.
1. The economic impact will be huge
“AI has the potential to deliver additional global economic activity of around $13 trillion by 2030” — McKinsey
2. The commercial advantage will be huge
Look at this chart of relative changes in cash flow by AI-adoption cohort (cumulative % change per cohort).
3. The social impact will be huge
- A Pew Research Center study asked 1,896 experts about the impact. 48% envision a future in which robots & digital agents will have displaced significant numbers of both blue- and white-collar workers.
- A Bruegel analysis found that “54% of EU jobs [are] at risk of computerization.”
- Oxford University found that “47 percent of U.S. workers have a high probability of seeing their jobs automated over the next 20 years.”
- A McKinsey Global Institute analysis of 750 jobs concluded that “45% of paid activities could be automated using ‘currently demonstrated technologies’. 30% by 2030.
People will argue that technology has always been a net creator of jobs. That is true. I agree with that. But anyone making that prediction about the AI future simply doesn’t understand this technology and what it is already doing, let alone what it is about to do.
AI is already doing things most people don’t understand
Artificial Intelligence is a classic example of “the future is already here, it’s just not evenly distributed” — William Gibson.
You can run deep learning experiments via your mobile phone for free. I did it myself on a train last week. I used Google Colab. Google Colab is Google servers with a Jupyter Notebook front end that gives you TPUs [next generation after GPU] and it is free. Think about that for a few seconds.
There are machine learning algorithms that make medical diagnoses more reliably that human doctors. Most people know Ai is making diagnoses, but most people haven’t considered this. There are doctors today (in some cases) making medical diagnoses without knowing how the diagnosis was made. This is the first time in history where doctors are diagnosing you and treating you without knowing why. That’s a bit scary to me.
Whatever the impact, it is still a risk that needs to be managed
The World is getting turned upside down and 90% of people haven’t realised yet. Even if you don’t agree on the likely impact of AI, it is a risk and it has to be managed. The United Nations said it better that I ever could…
“While some dispute the dire predictions on grounds new positions will be created to offset the job losses, the fact that all these major studies report significant workforce disruptions should be taken seriously.”
What is the Australian Government doing to seize the opportunities presented by AI?
As Tim Dutton, a very senior Canadian bureaucrat & AI expert says
“Australia does not yet have an artificial intelligence strategy”
Holy shit!! It is nearly 2019!! The Australian Government has no strategy and is investing just $29m over 4 yrs. I’d call this “economic suicide” but this is ignorance by the Australian Government rather than conscious insanity. I’ve said it a few times but the World is already getting turned upside down and 90% of people haven’t realised yet.
How does Australia’s investment in AI compare to other nations?
China… “China announced its ambition to lead the world in AI … “ China’s government has around $15Bn invested. That’s not a huge difference per capita but scale does matter.
The European Union … “EU’s investment in AI €1.5 billion by end 2020”, “France … [on it’s own is investing] €1.5Bn”
Singapore … “AI Singapore is a five-year, S$150m national program”
South Korea … “South Korean government five year, ₩2.2 trillion investment” (c. AUD$2.5Bn)
United States … Interestingly the “US government does not have a coordinated national strategy to increase AI investment or respond to the societal challenges of AI” but …
“the Pentagon spent approximately $7.4 billion on AI.”
PWC estimates US AI startup funding at around $2.3Bn per quarter. So there is some big numbers there.
What must we do about the impact of Artificial Intelligence if we are to survive?
- Invest a big portion of GDP in AI technology. If we don’t, we’ll be spending it on welfare for 50% of the population in 30 years time.
- Invest the majority of company profit in AI technology
- Get more AI aware, young people on ministerial advisory boards
- Get more AI aware, young people on departmental executive advisory boards
- Get more AI aware, young people on corporate boards
Clap if you liked this article. Thank you for reading.
(Credit: This article was inspired by an excellent article by @Tim Dutton on Medium)
(First published this article on LinkedIn)
